An analytical look at a news article on the resumption of Iran's nuclear activities and rising tensions between Iran and the United States
The Iran-US relationship can be studied and analyzed from various aspects. Among all the issues, the relationship between the two countries, especially in the field of nuclear negotiations, is always one of the most important and controversial issues in the foreign policy of both countries. These debates have gone through many ups and downs at different times. Especially during the period of change of the presidencies of the two countries, tensions usually increase.
That is why tensions between the two sides have risen in recent days since the US presidential election. According to Mostaghim & Griffiths (2021), “Iran's President, Hassan Rouhani has called on United States President-elect, Joe Biden, to return to the 2015 nuclear deal that Obama set, and lift sanctions imposed on Tehran by Donald Trump's administration”. To better analyze the situation today, it is enhanced to look at the history of the nuclear negotiations.
With the inauguration of the ninth government of the Islamic Republic of Iran headed by "Mahmoud Ahmadinejad" and the prioritization of Iran's nuclear program at the forefront of Iran's foreign policy agenda, Iran-US relations were affected. The resumption of enrichment at the "Natanz” (the most important nuclear facility in Iran) power plant and the construction of other nuclear facilities have always pitted the two countries against each other. With the coming to power of Barack Obama, how to deal with Iran was at the top of the US foreign policy agenda. The plan was to deploy a US missile defense shield in Eastern Europe to control Iran's missile and nuclear capabilities. The Obama administration saw Iran's nuclear capability as a potential threat, so they tried in various ways to bring Iran to the negotiating table directly with the United States and its allies. The imposition of sanctions on Iran and the P5 +1 talks with Iran were among the measures taken under Obama. After Hassan Rouhani came to power in Iran, a series of nuclear talks between Iran and world powers began. The most important of these talks were the New York talks, the Geneva talks, the Lausanne talks in Switzerland, and the final talks in Vienna. Finally, after twenty-two months of negotiations on 14 July 2015, the "Vienna Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty", known as the Comprehensive Joint Action Plan (CJAP), is in Vienna, Austria, between Iran, the European Union and the P5 +1 including China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, the United States and Germany (Mostaghim & Griffiths, 2021).
A brief look at the process of nuclear negotiations and the efforts of countries to reach a comprehensive agreement can show how dangerous the Iranian regime's acquisition of nuclear weapons can be for the whole world, because Iran's stubbornness against the demands of the West has been proven over the years and is not hidden from anyone. In my opinion, because the Iranian regime is known as a pro-terrorist regime in the world and provides military support to various terrorist groups in the world, it is not enough to limit Iran through an agreement. However, under the agreement, the Iranian regime agreed to three key issues, including cutting off 98% enriched uranium storage, reducing the number of centrifuges by about two-thirds and for at least 15 years. For the next 15 years, Iran agreed not to enrich uranium by more than 3.67 percent and to build no new uranium enrichment facilities or new hydropower reactors. In addition, Iran must limit uranium exploration and development and allow International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors clear access to its nuclear facilities (Mostaghim & Griffiths, 2021). I think what the Iranian people benefited from in the negotiations was that, following the agreement, all nuclear-related sanctions against Iran were lifted in January 2016 and re-connected Iran's stationary economy to international markets.
With Trump in office, new policies were imposed on the nuclear relationship with Iran. The United States unilaterally withdrew from the agreement in 2018, although the agreement itself still exists and the rest of the countries involved are still party to it. Trump believed that Iran had not acted in accordance with the agreement and had continued to enrich uranium beyond the set target, and that Tehran could complete its nuclear weapons program in the near future. Thus, the Trump administration imposed new rounds of severe economic sanctions on Iran. I believe that in response to the new US policy against Iran, the Supreme Leader of the Iranian regime, who is known as a dictator in the world, also decided to insist on achieving his nuclear aspirations more than before. Tensions between the two countries peaked after the assassination of “Qassem Soleimani” by the United States in January 2020.These days, with the arrival of Biden as the new president of the United States, one of the countries that expresses hope in this regard is Iran and its leaders. Biden was a member of the Obama’s administration and one of the main advocates of a return to the negotiating table with the Iranian government.
According to Motamedi (2021), Iran has increased its uranium enrichment to 20% as soon as Biden was assured of power, and is installing more advanced centrifugal waterfalls. In one of Rouhani’s recent speeches he said that Iran expects the new rulers of the White House to try to "erase all the stains of the past four years" (Motamedi, 2021). I think what can be deduced from the actions and words of the Iranian leaders is that if the pressure is removed from them and they find an opening to return to nuclear enrichment, they will not commit to any agreement. Conveying a desire to return to the 2015 agreement, Biden wrote for CNN that Trump "recklessly abandoned a policy that sought to secure US security and replaced it with a worse threat." "I will give Tehran a credible way to return to diplomacy". He marked in September, "If Iran returns to a strict compliance with the nuclear deal, the United States will rejoin the deal and be the starting point for further negotiations" (Mostaghim & Griffiths, 2021). However, it can be predicted that the issue of nuclear negotiations with Iran for Biden's foreign policy will be a controversial and tough issue, because at the same time he must attract the attention of its allies, including Israel.
In conclusion, the acquisition of nuclear weapons for a country like Iran, which is recognized as a sponsor of international terrorism and whose footprint is seen in most terrorist activities around the world, is dangerous for the world. In my opinion, in the long run, it can be a great global threat. Thus, the nuclear deal, which somewhat curtailed Iran's ability to build an atomic bomb, is considered an important international move. However, what is crucial is to control and monitor the implementation of this agreement, which in my opinion, the presence of well-known economic supporters of the Iranian regime (like China, Russia) as parties to this agreement needs deeper argument. In my opinion, Iran's recent actions, namely the start of 20% enrichment and related activities, reflect the fact that this regime never intends to give up the project of building an atomic bomb. Therefore, in a world where the usage of the atomic bomb by fanatical countries is a major threat to the people around the world, all parties to the agreement are required to adopt another, more serious solution to counter the Iranian regime's nuclear threat.
References
Mostaghim, R. & Griffiths, J. (2021). Iran's Rouhani hopes Biden will return to Obama-era
Nuclear deal as he dubs Trump a 'tyrant'. CNN. Updated 0823 GMT (1623 HKT). January 20, 2021. Retrieved from https://edition.cnn.com/2021/01/20/middleeast/iran-biden-nuclear-deal-intl-hnk/index.html
Motamedi, M. (2021). ‘Ball in US court’: Iran’s Rouhani serves Biden on nuclear deal. AL
JAZEERA. January 20, 2021. Retrieved from https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/1/20/irans-rouhani-signals-biden-on-nuclear-deal
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